Are Demographics Destiny?

While demographics are a powerful force, they do not dictate the future of globalization and modernity.

One of the most common mistakes geopolitical forecasters make regards timing. Events can move both faster and slower than anticipated. This is why it's foolish for figures such as Peter Zeihan to simply write off nations like China and Russia. There are still cards for these revisionist powers to play to maximize their power and prestige.

Events can move faster due to humanity’s greater interconnectivity. COVID-19 went global in a matter of weeks once it escaped China. Contrast this with the Black Death which took months - if not years - to spread throughout Europe. Modernity means the butterfly effect has never been more real.

Nevertheless, there’s a downside to this interconnectivity: the overflow of information.

There is only so much information we can process. There is a limit to our attention spans in any given moment. In centuries prior, the dearth of information enabled us to focus on what was right in front of us and maybe a few big items such as politics and religion. Today, the ever-constant buzzing our of smart-phones vies for our unceasing attention. Indeed, some studies suggest social media may contribute to shorter attention spans in adolescents. Tik-Tok brains are a real thing.

The result of this overwhelming flow of information is warped expectations regarding the timing of events. We expect instantaneous results, yet life is not a video game. The mega-trends driving history often take decades to fully develop. Just consider the impact of demographics.

The average human life span is somewhere between 60 to 80 years, depending on the location. Regardless, there are roughly four movements of the human life which reflect the four seasons of the natural world. Spring is the time of youthful abundance and discovery. Summer is the time of primacy and joy. Fall is the time of celebration and acknowledgement of mortality. Winter is the time of sober reflection and, ultimately, the end of existence.

This is a pattern that must play out for every generation.

Demographics are the result of the individual decisions we each make. Who we choose as a mate, how many kids we have, the environment those kids are raised in - these personal choices, when aggregated, deeply influence the course of history. One of the core reasons for France’s near-complete domination of Continental Europe under Napoleon was the French accounted for 23% of Europe’s total population in 1810. By 1900 though, the balance of power shifted as France’s population numbered 38.5 million to Germany’s 56.4 million, giving Germany approximately 19% of Europe’s total population in the run up to the First World War.

None of these trends happened overnight. It took decades for demographic headwinds to ultimately rewrite the balance of power. Even though there is little question that China, Russia, and Germany are facing severe population crises in the coming years, these crises do not mean collapse is imminent or even guaranteed. The future is still being written by our individual choices and by the choices of elites calling the shots.

This is why geopolitical prophecies predicated on demographic destiny by Peter Zeihan and others are so frustrating. Forecasts are made simpler and flashier by purposefully ignoring and discounting human agency. An over-emphasis on demographics and geography at the expense of how individuals and ideas actively shape history causes forecasts to take the form of prophesies rather than analysis.

While it is undeniable that demographics are one of the most profound constraints that influences geopolitics, demographics are not destiny. If demographics were all that mattered to great power politics, then the ancient Greek city states would not have stood a chance against the collective might of the Persian Empire which ruled over 44% of humanity at the time. History is rife with examples of how the demographic underdog, through superior tactics, technology, and morale, can decisively beat geopolitical rivals.

Demographics are not the end-all be-all for geopolitical power. They are merely one component of the complex systems which comprise geopolitics. The best way to understand the impacts of demographics on the future of geopolitics is to forecast how they impact the systems of economics, security, culture, and politics.

Often geopolitical forecasters err in overestimating the immediate impacts of long-term demographic trends. Yes, China will likely lose half of its current population by the end of the century, but that doesn’t mean China is incapable of challenging the U.S.' status as global hegemon over the next 20 years. Advances in life expectancy and robotics could offset and mitigate China's looming demographic crisis. Besides, let's not forget the U.S. faces its own demographic crisis as the mass retirement of the baby boomer generation coupled with ballooning entitlements of over $123 trillion in unfunded liabilities will force the U.S. to choose between funding a global military or funding entitlements.

Demographic trends are influenced by the policy decisions we debate over the course of a human life. There may well be headwinds driving events in a particular direction, but that doesn't mean the future is set in stone. Human agency and the choices of governing elites matter. It is the policy decisions that national governments make in response to demographic trends that make or break the future of a great many nations, including the U.S.

However, demographics are not destiny because power on the world stage is relative. A nation with a rapidly shrinking demography may experience a subsequent hit to its absolute power, but this is irrelevant if its peer rivals suffer from even worse demographic crises. If a power controls the key nodes of global commerce and manages to monopolize the extraction of vital raw materials, it might be able to fortify, and even enhance, its geopolitical position despite sub-optimal demographics.

This is why the growing coordination between Russia, China, and Iran across Eurasia is a trend to carefully watch. U.S. power is no longer omnipotent, and the U.S. is struggling to shift its strategy from counterinsurgency back to traditional great power competition. There is a window for revisionist nations to make power plays. That is not to say the moves will be successful. That remains to be seen. After all, the U.S. and other nations across Eurasia also have hands with which to play the game of great power politics. What's important to realize is these things take time, and only time will truly reveal what lies ahead.