Demographic Winter In The Twilight Years

We sit beneath the trees of which we did not plant, so why are today’s leaders hellbent on cutting down those trees to fuel their bonfire of vanities?

The greatest threat to the popular legitimacy of ruling elites is a decline in living standards. The people may be willing to tolerate an extended period of stagnation, but they will consider revolt when their standards of living begin to decline. It doesn't matter how high standards of living are, what matters is living standards are declining. What matters is that our children will inherit a world that is worse than it is today. That makes people angry.

Anger is an often-overlooked human emotion. It can be triggered by multiple factors, but anger is frustration and discontent at the status quo. A mature human adult is taught to restrain this anger and to not act immediately upon it in their everyday life. This is the distinction between toddlers and adults, though it is a distinction that is increasingly blurred amongst our leaders in recent years. Nevertheless, a righteous anger can reshape nations.

Parents are biologically hardwired to want what's best for their offspring. Parents desire for their children to inherit better lives than their own. When such a prospect becomes impossible, there is great anger. The natural human tendency is to gravitate towards displacement, to blame someone else for one's own sufferings. Rightfully or wrongfully, parents will blame those in power for the inability to achieve their evolutionary aspirations.

This creates a predictable pattern where prolonged stagnation ultimately results in a status quo elite being forced out of power by aspirational elites. There is, however, a strange exception to this pattern. The general pattern of elite dynamics is interrupted when a nation's population starts dropping below replacement. When this happens, the elderly soon outnumber the young. There are immediate economic and political ramifications as well as psychological and social consequences.

It's almost trite to note the marked differences between the dispositions of the young versus the old. The young are entirely consumed by vision and potential. There is no obstacle that cannot be overcome, no possibility thar is not worth exploring, and no great risk that is not worth undertaking. The old, on the other hand, are of a different mood. Age has chastened the foolhardy while experience has taught that some obstacles cannot be overcome, some possibilities are not worth exploring, and some risks are not worth undertaking. This difference between the young and the old in political terms is best described as the difference between a liberal disposition and a conservative disposition, change versus the status quo.

When a society possesses a young demographic structure, society is transfixed by a vitality and overwhelming desire for change. But when the demographic pyramid is reversed, the opposite occurs. The overarching goal of a society dominated by the old is conservatism, that is maintenance of the status quo. Instead of vitality, there is stagnation. Those who are old wish to maintain what they have. Those who are old do not wish to sacrifice any more. And when you are in an individualistic society like that of Western Civilization, you find yourself at an especially difficult crossroads.

This is the great challenge facing globalization and modernity: there is not a single advanced economy with an above replacement birthrate. The world’s economic engines of the U.S., EU, and China are all facing significant economic and social problems as the Baby Boomer generation retires en-masse. Already, the strains on domestic economic, government, healthcare, and social systems are mounting.

One element of economic growth is a nation’s dependency ratio. This metric measures the ratio of workers to dependents in a society, that is the percent of working-age adults in the general population. When that ratio is low, a nation has more resources available to pour into infrastructure, education, technology, and industry. Furthermore, individuals without children possess higher levels of disposable income, which further fuels consumption spending and economic growth. Indeed, an unsung aspect of China’s meteoric growth is how it contained 27% of the world’s working-age population in the 1990s and how the One Child Policy drove down the dependency ratio. It’s easy to supercharge the economy when you don’t have to worry about childcare.

There’s a problem though. The ultra-low dependency ratios that advanced economies enjoyed for the past 30 years are unsustainable. As workers age, they eventually become dependents and the previous dependents - children - become the new workers. But what happens when there is no next generation of workers?

The reckoning.

Advanced economies are now entering a demographic doom loop where an ever-increasing percentage of the nation’s productive capacity is siphoned into old-age care and pensions. This trend is destined to continue until either the demographic pyramid normalizes by having more children or the society itself dies. The Children of Men isn’t a movie, it’s a documentary. What’s more is the structure of modern society is oriented in such a way that it discourages the formation of families and the bearing and raising of children.

Humans are biologically wired to reach their sexual peak in their 20s. It’s simply a lot easier to bounce back the next day after dealing with a crying infant all night when you're 22 as opposed to when you’re 32. It may be argued that it is the societal ideal to be married in one’s 20s and have children shortly thereafter. This is the most common pattern of human reproduction that stretches across recorded human history until recent decades.

Although marrying in one’s 20s may be the societal ideal, it is far from the societal norm. Let us consider the basic structure of modern American life for most young people.

From age 18 to 22, it is expected that you will go to college, otherwise, you’re a loser. From there, you’ll likely graduate with close to $30,000 student loan debt you now have to figure out how to pay off. The next move for most is you take the highest paying job in your field and move to big city that’s likely far from home. You find some roommates to split an apartment to make housing affordable, then you spend the next 5-6 years trying to decide if you even like the job you’re doing while hopefully making a decent enough dent towards repaying all those student loans.

At this point, you’re in your late 20s. If you’ve pitched a perfect game, you might just be in a position to start thinking about getting married and having a family. This becomes even harder if you’re like a lot of young people and end up moving from big city to big city in search of better opportunities to remove that mountain of debt and achieve financial independence. Thing is, your social network and community resets every time you move. Life can get pretty lonely pretty fast. It’s little wonder then that the average age for first marriage in America is 30 for men and 28 for women. Assuming you’re lucky enough to find someone.

Marriage rates in America are plummeting. The number of people who have never married are at record highs. This isn’t just a signal of a decline for respect of the institution of marriage, it’s a signal that American society as a whole is becoming less trustworthy and more lonely. Almost 10% of Americans say they have no close friends.

The structure of American society is oriented to maximize wealth. After all, “the social responsibility of a company is to increase profits.” Profit for the sake of profit is the moral ethos that permeates every aspect of American life from commerce to politics to culture to even family life. With childcare costing almost $9,000 a year, who can afford more than one kid when both parents have to work to begin with? It’s not that Millennials (for it is Millennials who are having kids these days) don’t want kids, surveys show we want more kids than we actually have, it’s that the current social structure of maximizing wealth turns children into a luxury.

When money becomes the god and wealth becomes religion
A human sacrifice is one of the conditions

There are a great many moralists and devout religious observers who rightfully bemoan the pitiful state of American society. Yet, despite their innumerous pronouncements and various prophecies coming true, the defenders of traditional morality find themselves more irrelevant with every passing day. Evermore these individuals cry out for a greater adherence to traditional morality. Evermore are these declarations treated with disdain and scorn by general society.

But why?

There is a growing recognition that society, at its core, is fundamentally broken. How many young people find themselves caught up in the hopeless cycle of hookup culture? Drunkenly stumbling from one night stand to one night stand, countless young people find themselves, in their most vulnerable moments, asking a dangerous question: is this all there is?

There's something in the human soul that recognizes that modernity is at fundamental odds with what it means to be human. Modernity isn't just defying our basic human impulses, it is seeking to redefine them. We all know, in our heart of hearts, that it is good, that it is admirable to be married when one is young. To cherish the love of one's youth is one of the greatest joys in life. Yet, the young people of today find themselves increasingly unable to find the very thing that every single man, woman, and child to walk the face of this earth has ever really wanted: to love and to be truly loved, to know and to be truly known.

A big reason the defenders of traditional morality are viewed with such disdain is because they often offer only condemnation without solutions. It is far easier to condemn the choices of today’s youth and applaud one’s own choices in a spirit of self-righteous superiority than it is to recognize that the social structures of today run contrary to human flourishing. Recognition of this fact would mean there is now a solemn duty to engage in the laborious and difficult process of reform lest one become morally complicit in the inequities of society.

Altering the economic, educational, and cultural systems which hinder the formation and flourishing of families requires older generations sacrificing some of their comfort and prosperity so that future generations may have a better tomorrow. It means acknowledging the current debt-fueled pipeline of high school to university is unsustainable. It means acknowledging that not only is housing never more unfordable but that housing markets continue to be disproportionately dominated by Baby Boomers pricing out younger generations with only 22% of houses in 2022 purchased by first-time homebuyers. It means acknowledging that, by age 35, Millennials are statistically less likely to be married, own a home, and enter high-status career fields compared to Baby Boomers.

We sit beneath the trees of which we did not plant, so why are today’s leaders hellbent on cutting down those trees to fuel their bonfire of vanities? The 17% of the U.S. population that is older than 65 holds over half the nation’s wealth, yet this bountiful blessing of $96.4 trillion appears destined not to be passed on as generational wealth, but squandered upon dissipations and pleasures much like the Prodigal Son squandered his own inheritance, except now it is the father squandering the inheritance of his sons.

It is difficult for younger generations to not be overcome by cynicism. We watched as the world we grew up with shattered over a few fall days. Even now, we watch our own youth and vitality transform into middle-age, yet we still find ourselves unable to change things for the better. The power and wealth of America remains with those who called the shots 30 years ago. And as fall turns to winter, so too are we entering into the twilight years of the Silent and Baby Boomer generations.

It is obvious America is headed in the wrong direction. Poll after poll confirms this. Jimmy Carter was once damned for even suggesting the best days of America were over, and yet, the majority of Americans secretly fear this may be true. So why is there no change? The responsibility of reform and change lies disproportionately with those who possess the numbers, power, and wealth to affect change.

Many leaders of the Silent and Baby Boomer generation have retained their power and authority for the greater part of the past 30 years. While some have performed admirably, they are sadly the exception and not the rule. If ye may judge a tree by its fruit, then what do the fruits of American cultural, political, economic, and religious life these past 30 years say about the tenure of today’s leaders?

The question of societal reform is not a matter of what is best for a single generation, far from it. Indeed, I would be remiss not to admit that there are collective desires of my fellow Millennials which run contrary to the best interests of the nation. The collective interests of my generation, of my own self-interest, should not be the guiding compass for my political beliefs.

And neither should it be so for the Silent and Baby Boomer generations.

With every passing day, the collective tension and anxiety rises. It sometimes explodes in moments of violent civil disorder. Yet, our leaders find themselves either unwilling or unable to do what is necessary to set society back on the track of greater peace and greater prosperity. Desperately do they hold onto power even as their birthday candle displays morph into blazing infernos.

It is impossible to escape the coming demographic and economic crisis. The time to avert disaster has long since come and gone. As the security order underpinning globalization erodes, so too do the global economic, financial, and political systems which dominated human affairs for the past 30 years deteriorate. Chaos is inevitable. The question is only how devasting the coming storm will be, and that is predicated on the willingness of those in power to implement reform.

The looming danger is elites will choose their own self-interests and the interests of their particular generation over the best interests of the nation. Sadly, this is the pattern displayed for the past three decades. It is difficult to shake the idea that unless there is a changing of the guard, the greater community will suffer grave consequences for its leaders’ selfishness. Elites remain delusional that the status quo can be saved. They would rather expend the remnants of their power, wealth, and prestige in a desperate attempt to hold on to what they have rather than build something new. They are, in the truest sense, conservatives.

Reform is not merely necessary, but inevitable. Either we choose to reform American economic, educational, and cultural systems, or the coming breakdown of the Liberal International Order will force a restructuring. The people cannot tolerate declines in their security and prosperity indefinitely. It is only a matter of time before the floodgates break.